Sunday, January 17, 2016

Thoughts On The Oscar Season

Hello everyone!!! It's literally been forever, I know, but I'm very active on Golderby, covering this year's Oscar season and seasons from the past.  I'll try to post as much as I can about my thoughts on the films I'm seeing and this year's Oscar race and there may even be some sort of profile activity in the future.  I can't make any promises, but we'll see.

Anyway, this Oscar season has been very exciting in terms of how open this season is.  With no clear frontrunner for Best Picture and Best Director as well as an exciting race for Best Supporting Actress makes a more interesting season  then we've had in quite a while.  I'm hoping that it'll stay that way, but we all know it could turn very predictable very quickly. Anyway, here's my predictions for this year.

Best Picture:  A three way race between The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short.  It's all down to momentum- The Revenant has it with 12 Oscar nominations, box office success, and an epic sweep to it, but will the Academy embrace it enough to honor it? Spotlight most certainly recovered from its spotty precursor performance with being able to gain two acting nominations and that editing nomination, but it needs to do well with the guilds in order to win. The Big Short is very popular and I can see it winning SAG and then going on to win more at the Guilds, but we'll see. We can't make any  confident predictions until the guilds happen.

Best Director: I can definitely see Miller winning this one, since Alejandro had quite a big year last year. It's not impossible for him to win, but right now I'm not betting on it. If Spotlight or The Big Short dominate the guilds and become the BP frontrunner,  I could easily see McKay or McCarthy winning.  Again, I think DGA will help clear things up.

Best Actor: Leo is largely locked here. If Trumbo was more well liked by the Academy, Cranston could have a better chance, but The Revenant is way too strong right now and Leo's extremely popular. I could still see SAG going for him, but I think Leo is too strong to lose right now.

Best Supporting Actor: Stallone has a lot going for him, but with no precursor love from SAG or BAFTA makes me not believe that he is a lock like others do. However, if the awards split between contenders whose support is soft, he most likely will win, unless Hardy can really ride the momentum of The Revenant here.

Best Actress: Larson seems to be winning this one. Ronan still has a slim chance, but she needs to beat her at SAG and right now, I don't see that happening. Room has stronger Oscar support then Brooklyn does and Larson seems to have a home turf advantage: She's much more popular then Ronan. If Larson wins SAG (and I expect she will), she's winning the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress: A hard category right now that does come down to SAG. Kate looks like a really strong contender with her now being a 7 time Oscar nominee and after winning the Golden Globe, but she needs to win another precursor to get the Oscar. Both Vikander and Mara have shots, but both need SAG to win. I'm more skeptical about Mara since Carol was snubbed in Best Picture and she also gives a very restrained performance.  I don't think Jennifer Jason Leigh is winning, but she's not out of it just yet.

Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight is most likely picking this one up unless white guilt causes an upset for Straight Outta Compton.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short is the likely winner here unless Room upsets.

What do you guys think? What films are you rooting for? Who are you not rooting for?


Louis Morgan said...

Hey Joe!

My current predictions:

Picture: Spotlight

Director: McCarthy. I'd love to predict Miller, but I doubt that's going to happen.

Actor: DiCaprio, done deal I'd say.

Supporting Actor: Stallone, though its going to be a nail biter since Rylance will be able to boost his chances when he probably wins SAG and BAFTA. Either choice is a great choice.

Supporting Actress: Vikander. Mara might be too lead, though Vikander is lead as well, though it will be interesting to see where BAfTA goes. Vikander has the banner year for an extra boost. McAdams, and Winslet don't seem strong, buzz wise, enough at least at the moment. Leigh deserves to win but crude villains never win.

Original: Spotlight's, a done deal I'd say.

Adapted: I think could go any way except Carol. I think Big Short's support may wain enough American Hustle style, so I'd predict Room at the moment.

joe burns said...


Why do you doubt Miller's chances? Why do you think Big Short's momentum will run out?

Louis Morgan said...

For Miller I think the film's genre could keep him from winning, if he wins DGA, which he could, then I'll believe it as a strong possibility.

Big Short honestly it has more to do with my personal opinion of the film which I found to be obvious sloppy in many areas, and its more of a hope that some voters notice its never very good.

joe burns said...

It didn't hurt Gravity two years ago and the Academy is slowly starting to become more sci-fi friendly.

I think could be possible that we're overestimating it and it's loss at the Golden Globes doesn't help it. It needs the SAG badly for it to become a legitimate contender though- if it loses there, I feel that the Best Picture race is between The Revenant and Spotlight.