Friday, January 17, 2014

Thoughts On Oscar Nominations

Hello everyone!  I would  like to say that I am  pleased with the Oscar nominations, although I still haven't seen nearly as much films as I would like (I'm still waiting on Phiolmena, Nebraska, Gravity, The Dallas Buyers Club, Her, ect)   and I also need to rewatch Blue Jasmine, but here are my current thoughts on the race.

Best Picture:  I was overall expecting this lineup, but Her's inclusion is a little surprising to me given I thought it didn't have THAT much love in the race,  but the rest are what I expected.  I agree with the current Oscar pundits that it's a three way race between 12 Years As A Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. I think the former two are the frontrunners though, I don't see Gravity winning unless it wins some major precursors. I just don't see them honoring a sci fi film just yet.  This could be the first, but I think that if there's any movie that will bump off 12 Years As A Slave's frontrunner status , it will be American Hustle which seems to be on a roll right now. I just saw it last night and I thought it was fantastic (Sorry Louis!). I'm hoping it'll win  some big awards , but I think 12 Years As A Slave is more deserving of a win and I think it still will.  If there's any movie that could unseat these three, it would be  The Dallas Buyer's Club which could be the dark horse, sleeper movie of the year.  It just depends on how strong everyone's campaign is this year and how the BAFTA's end up because it'll be a month until the actual voting starts, so SAG and the other guilds could not matter as much anymore. On the other hand, they could all go for the same contenders and BAFTA  may differ alightly, but will agree with most, just like in 2010 when Firth and Mulligan won the leading awards, but everything else matched up with the Oscars and with every other precursor award.  We'll see though!

Best Director:  I'm surprised Greengrass didn't make it and Scorsese did, but I think that it's Cuaron's to lose right now, although I could easily see McQueen winning.  The dark-horse is probably O. Russell who if the film wins Best Picture, he could end up victorious as well.

Best Actor:  It's looking like McConaughey has unseated Ejiofor for Best Actor, which is a shame because even though I haven't seen D.B.C, Ejiofor is truly fantastic.  He still has a chance, but he needs the SAG or/and the BAFTA to triumph at the Oscars.  The other person I could see winning is Bruce Dern, who has sentiment as well (as the fact that they'll want to give Nebraska) something on his side. However, he needs the SAG badly in order to have a strong shot at winning.  I don't see Leo or especially Bale winning here.

Best Supporting Actor: It looks like the tradition of this category often being locked up by Oscar night will continue with Jared Leto, although Fassbender or even Cooper could surprise. Watch out for Abdi though!  We'll see how the precursors go. Out of the two that I've seen, I think Cooper was great, although Fassbender is probably more deserving.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett is definitely the frontrunner to win, although she is not a lock yet.  With Amy Adams in, she could be  in serious trouble.  If A.H win's Best Picture, but loses in the  all the other acting categories, she could triumph. I thought she was outstanding , but a win seems less likely. She needs a really strong campaign as well as a surprise BAFTA win in order to get the Oscar.  Sandra Bullock still has a shot, but even though I haven't seen Gravity, I think that voters may feel that it was more the direction and the visual effects that make the film great  and her performance may  be dismissed as just a stunt. Not to mention her recent, head-scratching win for The Blind Side could still be on voters minds (as it is on my mine. How could she win?).  Another scenario? Judi Dench could ride the sentimental wave as well as love for her film but that probably won't happen.  Meryl?  Just sit back and relax because you won't be winning this year.  Too bad. She's my pick right now so it's a bummer her win for The Iron Lady will cost her a win for this.

Best Supporting Actress:  The most interesting  and unpredictable category this year.  After seeing American Hustle, I can say that Jennifer Lawrence is truly fantastic. It's a true scene stealing  performance  and she is just so  great. I could easily see her winning again due to all the intense love for her as a person/actress  not to mention the box office clout she has for  Hunger Games.  Her strongest competition is Lupita, who needs precursors and to realy advocate for herself on the campaign trail order to win.  Could June Squib take the Tilda Swinton route and win for Nebraska if Dern or the script won't win?  Perhaps, but we'll see.  Again, she needs something else (SAG or BAFTA) as well staying fresh in voter's minds in order to pull that off. Hawkins and Roberts won't win here, but I'm glad to see they made it, though I don't necessarily  like their performances.

Best Original Screenplay:  Her seems to be the indie, quirky movie that'll be honored with this win, but wins for Nebraska and Dallas Buyer's Club are possible as well.  It depends on if voters will want to honor those films with acting awards instead with Her obviously can't compete in.

Best Adapted Screenplay:  12 Years As A Slave will win, but a surprise is always possible. But don't bet on it.

So, what are your thoughts? Are you disappointed with the Oscar nominations this year? Who are you rooting for? Who are you not rooting for? Do you agree/disagree with my predictions?  What should I see next?


Louis Morgan said...

In regards to American Hustle, it would be terribly boring if we always agreed.


Prediction/Preference: 12 Years a Slave


Prediction: Steve McQueen

Preference: Cuaron


Prediction: Blanchett

Preference: Bullock

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Lawrence

Preference: Nyong'O

Original Screenplay (This one seems pretty open although it would be an easy way for them to reward Hustle, which they clearly loved)

Prediction: American Hustle

Preference: Dallas Buyers Club (Still need to see Nebraska and Her)


Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

Preference: The Wolf of Wall Street

moviefilm said...

I won't say anything to the performance categories in order to not spoil anything on my blog, but the rest of the nominees I see this way:
best picture:
prediction: Twelve Years a Slave (AH could upset)
preference: Twelve Years a Slave or Her (can't decide)

prediction: Alfonso Cuarón
preference: Steve McQueen

original screenplay:
prediction: Her (if AH wins here, it can win best picture, as well)
preference: Her

adapted screenplay:
prediction: Twelve Years a Slave
preference: Twelve Years a Slave

prediction: Matthew McConaughey

prediction: Amy Adams

supporting actor:
prediction: Jared Leto

supporting actress:
prediction: Lupita Nyong'o