Sunday, March 2, 2014

Final 86th Academy Award Predictions

So, here they are.  I've  published them every year on the day of the Oscars besides the 84th.  I must say I did worse last year then I liked.  I'm not too ashamed of my Riva prediction, but I should been smart enough to go with Django and Argo in the screenplay categories. I also should have been aware of Ang Lee gaining momentum in the final stretch, especially in such an open field. But at least I got Waltz!  As I said then, I was proud of that prediction! I'm hoping the limb I'm going in one of the acting categories this year will prove to be right, though I'm still a little shaky.   I hope that all the thinking and monitoring of the awards pundits and of looking back into Oscar's history will mean I'll do better this year.  Find me on Gold Derby to get my predictions for the rest of the categories! 

Best Picture:   Who Will Win: 12 Years A Slave will win, I feel. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Gravity win, but I think 12 Years has just been holding a narrow edge at every awards show so far (Besides SAG, but A.H seemed like a clear winner there to me). It's importance and also it's quality will carry it to a win.  I've also  don't understand people citing the preferential ballot as Gravity's advantage: It could help it, but I think 12 Years and American Hustle have an equal chance of benefitting from that. Now, on American Hustle: I feel like it has a good chance of upsetting.  It lost it's frontrunner status, true that PGA tie was a blow, but it's never really disappeared from being a strong contender.  It could benefit a lot from this tight race, especially from the fact it's detractors aren't loud and it's supporters are head over heels for it. So don't  faint if it does win.  I had a temptation to predict it, but I think 12 Years is very strong.   

Who Should Win: 12 Years is very deserving, but Dallas Buyer's Club was the best film I saw  this year. It was an amazing story and it was brilliantly acted and written. However, I feel like I should vote for 12 Years because of the importance of it and it's a masterfully made film.  Both would make very deserving winners, although I might lean towards Dallas. 

Best Director:  Who Will Win: Cuaron seems almost assured, but a win for McQueen is a possibility or even O'Russell if voters do love American Hustle that much, but that's VERY unlikely.  Cuaron has won every directing award this year, so he looks like the winner. 

Who Should Win:  Haven't seen Nebraska or Wolf Of Wall Street, but McQueen should win. He brought out such brilliant performances and the way it was shot, the way the story was told.  Gravity and American Hustle are brilliantly but McQueen should take it for making 12 Years such a quality film. 

Best Actor:  Who Will Win:  Upsets from Dern, Ejiofor, and Leo are possible, but I really feel McConaughey has the support overall. His wins at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG create an incredibly strong awards streak .  He has two other acclaimed performances as well as having such a baity role: He plays a real person, he has aids, he emotionally transforms from a homophobic man to a more understanding and moral one.  People really appreciate the strides he has made this year. His win at the Independent Spirit Awards over Ejiofor and Dern doesn't matter much since Oscar voting closed already, but it proves he has  overall industry support. I think that will carry him over to a win.  Check out my last post for the things that are going against the rest, which will help McConaughey a lot.  

Who Should Win:   Haven't seen Dern or Leo, but Matthew McConaughey's performance was incredible.  He should win and I sincerely hope he does. What an indelible and moving performance.  

Best Supporting Actor:   Who Will Win: This is most likely a win for Leto, but I'm a little less skeptical of an upset then others are.  A win for Abdi is a possibility, given his BAFTA win/momemtum, the size of his role, and the admiration for Captain Phillips. But Leto is overall too strong to lose.  His snub at BAFTA can be explained by the DBC not been seen enough, plus critics are loving it there now.  

Who Should Win:  Haven't seen Hill or Abdi, but Leto should win.  There was no ounce of acting in that.  He was Rayon. It was a heartbreaking and brilliantly honest performance.  

Best Actress:   Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett is a lock here and there's not a chance she'll lose.  I thought Adams could be the spoiler and if there is a stunning upset,  I would say it would be her. But it isn't happening. Look for Cate to pick up her second. 

Who Should Win:  I'd go with Blanchett in retrosepect. The rest are quite impressive, especially Adams, but they all have problems that get in the way of them  putting out a flawless performance. Blanchett gives a brilliantly layered and wonderful performance.  It  may not be the masterpiece other people are saying, but unlike the others,  her work has no minuses. 

Best Supporting Actress:  An extremely close one, but I'm going with Lawrence.  I think her performance is the most showy and memorable, one that  steals the movie, something that I've heard people be so impressed by. People feel that she is the best in show of that movie and her precursor wins are quite strong.  People love her immensely and as Tom O'neil says, it's her honeymoon period. Which makes it a lot less harder then people think for her to win her second. I would not be shocked at all if Lupita wins and I am wrong though. I just feel that voters don't love Lupita in the way people think they do, especially since it's such a one-note and lacking performance in general. But it's close. 

Who Should Win: Lawrence. I love Julia, but she is clearly a lead, so I refuse to vote for her.  Lawrence gave a brilliant, incredible SUPPORTING  performance that deserves to win. 

Best Original Screenplay:  Who Will Win: A close one, with American Hustle gaining a lot of steam towards the end, but Her just seems to have the home field advantage with wins from WGA, G.G, and C.C.  This is another category I wouldn't be surprised I got wrong though. I just think people will wait to honor Russell in another year for the two  big awards, Picture and Director.  And people have problems with A.H's script, saying it's uneven and not cohesive enough.  And Jonze is over due.   

Who Should Win:  DBC should take it, but A.H would be deserving as well. 

Best Adapted Screenplay:  Who Will Win:  12 Years A Slave is the frontrunner, but a Philomena upset is possible. It has the Weinsteins behind it and it has a great, sentimental, moving story. It's BAFTA upset could be telling as well, though it has a British advantage there. I'm still going with 12 Years, but watch out for Philomena for sure.  Captain Phillips has the WGA, but 12 Years wasn't nominated there and Philomena triumphed over both of them at BAFTA.I'm  m still going with 12 Years since a B.P usually picks up a screenplay award and because of 12 Years strong support,  but watch out for Philomena for sure.

Who Should Win:  Only seen two, so I can;t say. My rule is you must see at least three to name who your preference is, even though you clearly have to see all 5, still though, that's my rule! 

So, what do you think?  Do you think I will be right? Or do you think I will be wildly  wrong? What are your predictions/preferences? What would be the win you would most want to see and the win you would most not want to see?  Are you excited? BECAUSE I AM!!! 


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