Sunday, February 24, 2013

Final Oscar Predictions And My Preferences



Well, the day is here!!! I always do them last, although I didn't get around to publishing my predictions last year (They would have been: The Artist, Michael Hazanvicious, Jean Dujardin, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer,Octavia Spencer, The Descendants, Midnight In Paris), but here are mine for this year!!


Best Picture: Who Will Win: Argo will win. It won't be a deserved win, but given it's won everything in sight, I'm doubting it will lose. If it does, expect Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook to triumph given Lincoln's overall nomination tally and Silver Linings fierce Miramax campaign.

Who Should Win: Lincoln hands down. It's an amazingly epic and rich film that is a masterpiece in every way. Please Academy give it to this film!

Best Director: Who Will Win: Steven Speilberg most likely will win, but upsets from Lee, Haneke, or even David O'Russel are possible. But don't bet on it.

Who Should Win: My vote would have easily have gone to Kathyrn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, but I'll happily give my vote to Speilberg. He created such an involving and moving film and I'll be happy if he wins his third Oscar.

Best Actor: Who Will Win: D.D.L is pretty much a lock here and a win for him is extremely deserving.

Who Should Win: D.D.L. His performance is so brilliantly detailed and filled with so many emotions. One of the best performances of the year.


Best Actress: Who Will Win: Most are predicting Lawrence here and she is certainly the frontrunner, but I'm still sticking to my Enamulle Riva prediction. Her BAFTA win helped her, but it didn't have the same passionate effect I thought it would, mostly because Riva hasn't been campaigning like Streep and Cotillard did in their respective years. Yet, I'm still thinking she'll pull off an upset. But I'm getting a feeling that maybe Naomi Watts will pull off a surprise because she seems to be getting some last minute buzz, but it's still a big long-shot. Poor Jessica Chastain. She has a chance at surprising, but she's lost too much momentum at this point to win.

Who Should Win: Emanuelle Riva. Her performance is so full of beautiful warmth, strength, and dignity and those later scenes are simply shattering. If she wins, it will be a very worthy one. Jennifer Lawrence would be my 2nd choice.

Best Supporting Actor: Who Will Win: Many are saying De Niro, and I was too for a while, but now, I'm switching to Waltz. He has recently won this award, but his globe and especially his BAFTA win could help him a lot. But this is the modt unpredictable category and wins from Lee Jones, De Niro, Hoffman, and Arkin are possible.

Who Should Win: I've seen De Niro, Jones, and Arkin and De Niro is an easy pick for me. His performance is so amusing and funny and he adds so much to Silver Linings. Jones is fine, but a win is way too much. And Arkin does hardly anything in Argo.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway. She's won basically everything for most of the season and voters seem to love her as much as most do. If there is a shocking, Julliete Binoche upset, bet on Sally Field or Helen Hunt, but Anne is still probably winning anyway.

Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway. Her performance is so devastating and terrific. She gives one of the best musical performances in many years. Sally Field is great too though.

Best Original Screenplay: Hmm, it seems like a three way race between Zero Dark Thirty, Amour, and Django Unchained. I'm going to guess Mark Boal because of his recent WGA award and the fact that they may want to honor Zero Dark somewhere and Amour will most likely win Best Foreign Language Film and Django doesn't seem to be too loved by the Academy.

Who Should Win: I've only seen Amour and Zero Dark Thirty and Amour has a beautiful screenplay that would be very deserving if it wins here.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Who Will Win: A three way race between Lincoln, Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook. Since I haven't predicted Silver Linings to win anything else, I feel obliged to predict a win for it here. But Argo could easily triumph as could as lincoln.

Who Should Win: Hmm, a tie between Lincoln and Silver linings would be the only way to make this category fair for me! If pressed, I'd lean towards Lincoln, but both are so good!

I won't predict the other categories, but I'm rooting for Adele, Amour, Zero Dark Thirty for editing, and Les Miserables for Best Art Direction!

Anyway, what are your picks? Youe predictions? Who's the one you're going out on a limb for? Who are rooting for especially?









3 comments:

Alex in Movieland said...

I'm not feeling De Niro either... I mean... He seemed like a lock for SAG, and he didn't even win there. Not to mention lack of nomination from BAFTA & GG. And no big win from critics. He COULD win, but I say TLJ - because he is more respected in the industry, won the SAG and ppl will want to give him a 2nd.

Agreed Waltz could happen. My main argument against it is that 2 wins for him in such a short time period would seem too much. Nobody in Hollywood had heard of him 3-4 years ago...

Louis Morgan said...

Predictions:

Best Picture: Argo as it has won too much to lose.

Best Director: Hard to say as Affleck has won everywhere else. Spielberg's my guess but its just that a guess.

Best Actor: Day-Lewis no reason to doubt that.

Best Actress: Lawrence. It is hard to see that they'll send Silver Linings empty handed.

Best Supporting Actor: Jones, I guess, although I might be saying this because I want him to lose to Waltz. Anyway the De Niro surge feels like when everyone was predicting Tom Hooper to lose director in 2011. It is counting on an upset really, some sort of James Coburn reliving (although a weaker performance than his). I'm not saying it won't happen, but I personally will not be betting on it.

Supporting Actress: Hathaway.

Original Screenplay: As hard as director really. The WGA win does not help as most of the competition was disqualified there. I'll guess Tarantino at the moment, as he did win Bafta, but I could easily see him losing as well.

Adapted: Argo I'm sure they will want to give it more than one win.

Preferences:

Picture: Almost all are good but Zero Dark Thirty is probably the best. Argo I would say is deserving enough as it is a good film, I would put more than one of the other nominees above it but it is still good which is more than what can be said about some of the best picture winners.

Director: Spielberg does his best work in years and is deserving. Although again all the directors did fine work here.

Actor: I can't make up my mind between Phoenix and Day-Lewis as they are both amazing.

Actress: Thinking about it some more I would go with Riva. Although Chastain, Lawrence, and Wattts are also very good and would be deserving.

Supporting Actor: Hoffman all the way. Although Waltz seems like he actually has a chance so it would be great for him to win as well. De Niro I do not want to win as he has won for two great performances, this would be his first undeserved win.

Supporting Actress: Hathaway.

Original: Zero Dark Thirty which was an expertly crafted script. DJango is good if overly indulgent, Amour is a beautiful script (although I think the direction and acting is really the keys of that film). Moonrise Kingdom is a wonderful story. Flight is a terrible script, and there is a long list of better contenders Seven Psychopaths and The Master are the first that come to my head.

Adapted: Lincoln deserves it and is great the way he pulled in so many characters, and made the history come to life.

All in all it looks like this could be a year filled with good and great winners.

My sincerest hope of the night is that Waltz will win.

joe burns said...

Alex: I just don't see Jones winning, it would be really boring if he did. I know it seems they'd be indulging Wal;tz, but his precursor wins really help.


Louis: I'm glad you're going with Riva now for Best Actress! She's my sincerest hope of the night. That and Lincoln winning Best Adapted Screenplay (Best Picture would seem to much to hope for).

I think Zero Dark is really well crafted, but could have developed it's characters more. I need to see Moonrise Kingdom!!