So, here they are!!! Competition is keen in several categories, and I'm guessing I'll be wrong in some races as well, but here's my predictions:
Best Ensemble Cast: I think Silver Linings Playbook will win here: It's a great ensemble movie and it's those films that deserve to win this award, not just Best Picture frontrunners (Slumdog Millionaire, No Country, The King's Speech to a certain extent). I could still see Argo winning easily, especially since it just won the PGS, but I'm guessing this is S.L.P's chance to shine. Lincoln has a slim shot, but I doubt it'll win.
Who Should Win: S.L.P, because as I've said, it's a great ensemble movie.
Best Male Actor In A Leading Role: D.D.L for sure. if he wins here, he'll become a total lock. I guess Jackman or Cooper could surprise, but I doubt it. The reason why Clooney was overlooked here last year was because people didn't love him as much as D.D.L which will help him in the long run.
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper!
Best Female Actor In A Leading Role: This is a tight one between Lawrence and Chastain. i'm going to say Chastain, although I could easily see Lawrence winning.
Who Should Win: Since Wallis is out of this lineup, I've only seen 3 and I'd go with Lawrence.
Best Male Actor In A Supporting Role: The toughest race here!! I'd say Robert De Niro, because he's a sentimental favorite and few veterans have a SAG award. But Hoffman and Jones could win too, this being the latters last chance to get back his leading status.
Who Should Win: I've only seen De Niro and Jones and I'd easily go with De Niro.
Best Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway for sure and she is very deserving!!
Who Should Win: ANNE!!!!
4 comments:
Best Actor:
Should and most likely will: Daniel Day-Lewis. Hawkes, Cooper and Jackman would be fine winners as well though, just keep the award away from Washington.
Actress:
Will Win: Chastain I suppose, although Lawrence could easily as well. I don't think it is over yet if either of them win here though.
Should Win: I have seen all except Cotillard. I would choose Chastain although Lawrence and Watts are also both very good in very different performances. Mirren is fine but really should not have been nominated.
Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Hmm I'll guess De Niro, but really I don't know.
Should Win: The only one not nominated for the Oscar Javier Bardem. I have not seen Hoffman but he blows the other three away completely.
Supporting Actress: Should and Will Win: Anne Hathaway. Although she is not perfect I feel she has the reaches the greatest heights with her work. Field is fine and consistent, Hunt is the same even though I really did not care for her big breakdown scene. Kidman certainly does not overcome her terrible film. I have not seen Smith.
Ensemble: Will Win: Silver Linings Playbook just because it is the most ensembly if that makes any sense. Although Lincoln, Argo and Les Miserables have big ensembles too.
Should Win: Well this is complex as I feel one should take in the quality of every performance. I'd rank them as such.
1. Lincoln: great lead performance and strong supporting work all around.
2. Les Miserables: Powerful performances, even the least of the efforts I still thought were fine.
3. Silver Linings Playbook: Strong leads solid supporters for the most part. I put this three as Julia Stiles and whoever played the cop are pretty bad.
4. Argo: Solid all around, but no one is great everyone is just good.
I have not seen the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Yes, I don't think it's over either if one of them wins here, given 2 of the nominees are not here.
Yes, an Ensemble Cast Award is a problematic one. Sometimes, I wish they could have it at the Oscars, but other times I don't. It seems more like an award that doesn't really belong at the Oscars, but it does at the SAGs. What do you think?
The problem with having an Ensemble award at the Oscars is that most people would just vote for it the same as Best Picture, as you said with Slumdog, No Country, etc.
As for the SAGs tonight, Day-Lewis and Hathaway are locks and both very deserving (though I think I'd go with Helen Hunt by a smidge). Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor are a little tougher.
Lawrence and Chastain are in a dead heat, and I really could see it going either way. I'm guessing Lawrence but I'm really not confident one way or the other.
Supporting Actor is chaotic. Bardem won't win, and I think Hoffman is out too, though he certainly could surprise as everyone loves him. I have a weird feeling the Argo love could translate to Arkin winning (especially since Eddie Murphy beat him here in '06). As much as people say they love TLJ in Lincoln he hasn't been winning, though he could start tonight. De Niro seems to be who everyone thinks will win but I'm less sure. I'm going with an Arkin upset but it could go to any of the 4 Oscar nominees really.
Ensemble will be SLP probably. I weirdly think Les Mis could shock, especially with the singing live aspect that actors might respect.
I like the idea of an ensemble award but I think at the Oscars they would just use it as a double up for best picture, rather the films with honestly the best casts. After all Sag frequently does this like with Slumdog Millionaire for example.
Also an ensemble is probably one of the hardest things to rate since I feel you should put weight in how many good and great performances there are but also how many bad ones there are too.
So really I'd rather there not be the award as it probably would be done very poorly.
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